![]() ![]() Talking about turnover, the second graph is from JOLTS that I post each month (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). This seems to provide a hint - sometimes. As the economy improves, it is easier to find a new job - so some people who might have filed for unemployment don't because of new employment.Įach month, when I post an "employment preview", I look at weekly claims (especially for the BLS reference week). That was pretty close, but a rough number.Ĥ) Even though there is a general relationship, this doesn't suggest a coming surge in employment. This is probably because of improved hiring.ģ) Following the recession, a number of analysts pointed out that when claims dropped below 400 thousand per week, the economy would probably start adding jobs. ![]() If there were 300,000 initial weekly claims per week, that would mean 15 million layoffs per year! However, some of these layoffs are regular - as an example when workers are furloughed (common in some industries) they are eligible for unemployment benefits.Ģ) Unemployment benefits have been trending down over time. ![]() Note: For smoothing, this graph use a 3-month centered average of net payroll employment, and the 4-week average of initial unemployment claims.ġ) Even with a "low level" of initial weekly claims, there are a large number of claims per week (and per year). ![]() Note that unemployment claims are graphed inverted. There is definitely a general relationship as shown in the first graph. And if claims are so low, does that mean a surge in employment gains? A reader asked about the relationship between initial unemployment claims and monthly payroll employment. ![]()
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